What to Expect from IDEB 2025: Scenarios, Challenges, and Opportunities for Brazilian Education

By: Kelly Baptista, executive director of 1Bi.

The Basic Education Development Index (IDEB) is a fundamental compass for Brazilian education. Every two years, it provides us with an overview of the quality of education in the country, combining school performance data (promotion rates) with performance in standardized Portuguese and mathematics exams administered through the Basic Education Assessment System (Saeb). With the 2025 results expected, what can we anticipate, and how might these figures shape the next steps for our education system?

What is IDEB, and why does it matter?

Before delving into expectations, it is important to recall the relevance of IDEB. Created in 2007, the index ranges from 0 to 10 and serves as a gauge of the quality of basic education, from the early years of elementary school through high school. It not only measures learning, but also considers student progression—in other words, the promotion rate—indicating whether students are advancing within the expected timeframe.

For education administrators, teachers, parents, and society in general, IDEB is a powerful tool. It makes it possible to identify progress and bottlenecks and, above all, to guide the development and implementation of more effective public policies.

Possible Scenarios for IDEB 2025

The IDEB 2025 results will reflect the impact of policies and initiatives implemented in recent years, as well as persistent challenges. Some perspectives to consider include:

• Challenges in elementary school—the final years—and high school: These stages have historically been the most challenging for Brazil in terms of IDEB. Learning gaps and high dropout rates are ongoing concerns. It will be crucial to analyze whether initiatives to combat dropout and recover learning—especially in the post-pandemic period—are proving effective.

• Impact of changes to Saeb: Saeb 2025 introduced some updates, such as alignment with the guidelines of the National Common Curricular Base (BNCC) and the adoption of constructed-response items. These changes have the potential to influence IDEB indicators in the long term, providing a deeper and more detailed analysis of students’ skills. It is important to monitor how this new methodology will translate into the results.

• Regional and socioeconomic inequalities: Brazil is a country of contrasts, and education reflects this reality. The IDEB 2025 results will certainly highlight disparities between public and private schools, urban and rural areas, and different regions of the country. Analyzing these inequalities is essential to directing resources and efforts where they are most needed.

Dropout, particularly in high school, remains a major obstacle. Programs and strategies to keep students in school and ensure they complete their educational journey will be decisive. Another point we need to observe is that the impacts of the pandemic on the mental health of students and teachers are still being felt. Socioemotional support and the creation of welcoming school environments are factors that may indirectly influence performance.

IDEB 2025 is a roadmap for improving Brazilian education. Its results can guide the allocation of resources and the implementation of effective strategies, driving targeted programs, teacher training, and more relevant curricula. Overcoming inequalities requires equity, ensuring access to quality education for everyone.

Fundação 1Bi, through AprendiZAP, aims to transform Brazilian basic education by offering innovative and accessible solutions that use artificial intelligence. The platform was developed based on a structured methodology that includes scenario analysis, active listening to target audiences—students, teachers, and administrators—and an understanding of the education market’s needs.

For students, AprendiZAP offers tools accessible via WhatsApp, focused on overcoming barriers to access to educational materials for the final years of elementary school and high school, promoting digital inclusion. For teachers, the platform provides educational materials aligned with the BNCC, AI-powered diagnostic reports to identify learning gaps, and the virtual assistant Mari, which strengthens pedagogical support. Mari, the AI assistant, helps generate tests and lesson plans, in addition to providing real-time pedagogical support. For administrators, tools were developed to help identify inequalities and learning gaps, enabling equitable, tailored pedagogical strategies.

Fundação 1Bi is committed to scalable, accessible, and equitable solutions that integrate technology and data analysis to reduce educational inequalities. AI is a central engine for the automation, personalization, and scalability of the solutions offered by AprendiZAP. The commitment to expanding the benefits of educational technology so that it can reach more school communities in an accessible and efficient manner is fundamental .